Climatic Data Trend Analysis by Mann Kendal Test and Innovative Trend Analysis: A Case Study of Taloqan River at Takhar, Afghanistan.

Abstract

Climate change is taking place due to increased population and anthropogenic activities. The impacts of climate change have increased the demand for sustainable management of water resources. The semi-arid climatic zone is widely affected by climate change. Afghanistan is vulnerable to climate change because of its climate and variable precipitation. This research has studied the trend analysis of climatic data in the Taloqan River, which is being utilized for drinking and irrigation. The recorded data of the Tangi-Farkhar hydro meteorological station from 2008 to 2021 is used in this work. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) method are utilized in this investigation. This study has found an increasing trend in the mean value of temperature in May across the period of study but no trend in annual temperature data according to the MK test with a 95 percent confidence level. The ITA shows an increasing trend in the annual temperature data, a decreasing trend in precipitation, and a non-monotonic negative increasing trend in discharge. The MK test has presented no trend in the annual data of precipitation and discharge and showed an increasing trend in the mean discharge value in October and November across the study period.